Leading print industry economist, Hagop Tchamkertenian, says printers should invest in new infrastructure as the country looks set for development under new prime minister Malcolm Turnbull. Speaking with Australian Printer, Tchamkertenian says: “The current economic environment is ideal for governments to invest in infrastructure by taking advantage of low borrowing costs.

Hagop Tchamkertenian, leading print industry economist

Printers can of course do likewise either indirectly via their super funds or directly by purchasing equity in infrastructure firms.” Tchamkertenian says that while infrastructure offers opportunity, the depreciating Australian dollar, which is currently trading at 72.4 US cents, may not be good news for all print companies. “Printing businesses engaged in exports or who compete against imports benefit from a lower Australian dollar,” he says. “The downside for the industry is that the cost of raw materials and printing technology increase when the Australian dollar depreciates. “I would say the net impact would probably be negative as raw material cost increases impact all printers.” Recently, there was also talk that the Reserve Bank of Australia may implement another rate cut, which according to Tchamkertenian is bad news for consumer confidence. Tchamkertenian says, “From an economic perspective I hope the RBA does not lower interest rates further as it may cause consumer sentiment to weaken. Interest rates fall when economic conditions are poor. “If consumers respond with concerns that the RBA cut interest rates again to try to revive the economy that may reinforce the message of how tough economic conditions actually are.

prime minister Malcolm Turnbull

“I don’t think another rate cut would be a positive development for the economy. At two per cent official interest rates are already at historical lows and generally the cost of borrowing money is not a current impediment to spending and investing, but weak consumer sentiment definitely is.” He says while Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) may say that print businesses performed well in the June quarter that is not what printers are saying now. Tchamkertenian says, “Economic conditions are at best patchy at the macroeconomic level. While the latest ABS data is showing that at a sectoral level the printing industry did well during the June quarter that is essentially historical data as we are now in October. “Businesses don’t look back. They might have done well back then but if they are struggling now past results don’t matter to them as only contemporary economic conditions help pay the bills. As long as there is no sustained bounce in consumer sentiment then businesses will continue to feel the pinch.” “Printing businesses are also facing numerous other industry specific challenges such as rising paper prices, increased bulk mailing costs and a new PM, who believes in the digital mailbox,” Tchamkertenian says.

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