Print’s share of ad dollars will be slashed in the next five years as digital takes over, with only books and outdoor weathering the storm, analysts predict.
The latest PricewaterhouseCoopers Australian Entertainment and Media Outlook projects the internet will make up 51 per cent of the ad market by 2019, with huge falls for newspapers and magazines.
It says newspaper revenue will be slashed 23.8 per cent from $1.93bn to $1.47bn, with circulation and ad sales both halving from $1.218bn to $612m and $1.66bn to $833m respectively.
Newspaper ad revenue is down from $2.8bn in 2010 to $1.7bn in 2014.
The outlook for magazines is less gloomy, falling 8.7 per cent from $503m to $461m, with PwC saying digital will make up for print circulation declines – but not ad sales.
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Newspaper share of ad dollars will plummet from 13 per cent to five per cent while magazines will halve from its present four per cent.
Books are expected to buck the trend, growing from $1.97bn to $2.16bn and while e-books will continue their growth they will only reach 20 per cent of sales and print will remain the ‘dominant’ format.
Out-of-home is tipped to continue its record growth, but not to the $1bn predicted by Outdoor Media Association chief executive Charmaine Moldrich – up 14.7 per cent from $746m to $856m.
OMA figures have the revenue at about $600m – but that only includes its members, not the entire market.
However, digital will continue to encroach on print’s revenue with sales from printed panels will fall from $609m to $560m, while digital panels grow from $101m to $296m.
PwC says government regulation will lead to ‘very few’ new billboards so the revenue movement is likely to come from converting billboards – as the big players are already doing.
The report says media spending in Australia will grow 4.8 per cent to about $16bn, with the internet making up more than half of that at $8.2bn.
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