PIAA trends survey reveals distinct downturn

Other important September quarter developments include reported improvements in capacity utilisation rates; increased orders and production; increased sales and net profits; increased employment and overtime levels; reduced selling prices; reported increased investment in plant and machinery; finance reported easier obtain while labour was reported harder to obtain; reported increases across all cost categories; better than expected net balance for outstanding debtors.

According to expectations there should be net balance increases in orders, production, sales and net profits during the December 2004 quarter; increased investment in plant and machinery during the next six months; recovery in selling prices; reduced availability of finance and labour; increased employment and overtime levels; further increases in all production cost categories – average wages, other labour costs, and average material costs; unchanged stock levels; and increased number of outstanding debtors.

The outlook for general business expectations over the next six months remains favourable across all states. The most optimistic state is Queensland with a net balance of 54.6 per cent of respondents forecasting improvements.

The vast majority of product sectors are expecting improvements to occur in general business conditions over the next six months. According to the September quarter results, high capacity utilisation rates were achieved by cheques and securities, folding cartons, books, magazines, periodicals and newspapers, and greeting cards, calendars and diaries.

Considerable levels of excess capacity seem to exist in the business forms and continuous stationery, graphic reproduction, screen printing, quick printing, labels and desktop publishing sectors.

Over the outlook period most sectors are either forecasting an increase or no change in selling prices, while the business forms and continuous stationery, general promotional and commercial and desktop publishing sectors are anticipating further reductions in selling prices during the December quarter. The majority of sectors either reported increased levels of net profits or no change in net profits, excepting quick printing, other packaging and paper converting and paper merchants sectors which reported reduced levels of profits during the quarter. Over the December quarter, the vast majority of sectors are expecting improvements to take place in net profits.

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