All things have a lifespan, whether they are living things, inanimate things, or even the universe (the ultimate collection of things). They start out as nothing, become something, and ultimately become nothing again. This pseudo-philosophical statement begins a discussion about technological change in the printing industry, a subject dear to all of our hearts.
The letterpress printing era began in 1440 and ended in 1980 (500+ years).
The offset era began in earnest in 1936 and will probably last until 2040 (100+ years).
The machine typesetting (Linotype) era began in 1886 and ended in 1986 (100 years).
The phototypesetting era began in 1945 and ended around 1990 (45 years).
The laser imagesetting era began in 1978 and ended in 2008 (30 years).
The off-press CTP era began in 1991 and will probably last until 2021 (30 years).
The on-press CTP era began in 1991 and may end in a few years.
The digital printing era began in 1993 and may extend far into the future.
Every technology solves a problem, or improves efficiency, or lowers cost, often replacing the previous technology over time. Handset typesetting became machine typesetting which became phototypesetting which became laser imagesetting which then disappeared in the CTP and digital printing worlds. Off-press CTP competed with on-press CTP. It is reasonable to expect that digital printing, the ultimate CTP approach, will affect the longevity of offset.
[Related: The future of print]
Lithography was around for over 100 years before it became offset and another 60 years before it replaced letterpress. Based on the past, would it be incorrect to predict a replacement for offset? Offset is still the best process for long runs. But digital printing is catching up rapidly.
At first we see the flaws in the new technology, complain that it is inferior, and admit that it might be “good enough,” and then, the older technology declines and the new technology grows. What is weird is that some of us keep using the old technology. Legacy equipment hangs around almost forever.
Interestingly, no process ever truly dies. There is a renaissance in handset letterpress by hobbyists. Printmakers love stone lithography and wood engraving. A movie about the Linotype recently has increaded interest in this machine.
We assume that our existing technology will last forever, but history makes fools of us. The question is not if a technology will change, but when.
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