PMP investor: print giant is ‘sitting duck for a takeover’

The claims come from a professional investor who continues to buy shares in the country's biggest print group.

The investor, who asked not to be named, said although PMP was currently trading at record low levels of about 14c, the firm's net asset value meant the price should be above 70c.

He noted that TMA Group's takeover offer in April 2012 valued PMP at 68-78c.

"I think the company is a sitting duck for a takeover – and I think that will happen some time in the next year," the investor told ProPrint.

"[PMP stock] has been significantly oversold. The gap between [the net asset value] and the share price is simply too high.

"The market tends to write sectors off and then realise they've gone a bit far, and I think print is possibly going through that."

PMP wouldn't be drawn on its share price or the possibility of a takeover. A spokesman told ProPrint: "You're asking us to forecast what other unknown parties may do. That's a hypothetical that we couldn't possibly comment on."

However, the unnamed investor said the chances of a takeover bid were boosted by the fact that PMP was in the unusual position of being 83% controlled by just six entities.

Five are funds management firms: Allan Gray owns 20%, Hunter Hall 18%, Lazard Asset Management 15%, PM Capital 12% and Dimensional Fund Advisors 6%.

Another 12% is held by Thailand-basd InterBev Investment. Contrary to recent media reports, this is not a new holding, but the result of a recent internal switch within International Thai Beverage.

[Feature: The pressure on public print firms]

"It's a very tight structure. The interests of the institutions are aligned… so if someone gives them 50c tomorrow, they'll be out like a shot," he said.

"Had that [TMA] bid been put to shareholders, I would have been very surprised if that bid had not been accepted."

ProPrint contacted all five funds management firms to gauge their plans for their PMP stock. Allan Gray was the only one to comment on its investment intentions, with managing director Simon Marais saying there were no plans to buy or sell in the foreseeable future.

Meanwhile, both Marais and a representative of another one of the firms said PMP made the right decision in October when it replaced outgoing chief executive Richard Allely with restructuring specialist Peter George.

Hunter Hall investment analyst Li Zhang said George was "a very experienced business leader… Peter George told me once that he’s very confident about the turnaround of PMP."

Marais said George's experience gave him a "reasonably good chance" of successfully restructuring PMP, but that even the best chief executive would find it hard.

"It's a solid company, but it's in an incredibly difficult business. Print volumes are declining, and it's a fixed volumes business, so you have incredible competition which is very tough for any industry to negotiate," he told ProPrint.

"As far as I can tell, I think we've got reasonable expectations [of George], but I think it will be tough for him.

"I think Richard talked a good game, but it's difficult to know if he delivered on what he promised, because it's difficult to disentangle management performance from market conditions."

[Related: Ups and downs of PMP]

Comment below to have your say on this story.

If you have a news story or tip-off, get in touch at editorial@sprinter.com.au.  

Sign up to the Sprinter newsletter

Leave a comment:

Your email address will not be published. All fields are required

Advertisement

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

Join our mailing list to receive the latest news and updates from our team.
Advertisement