The September quarter figures reveal that the printing, publishing and
recorded media industry declined by almost 3.0 per cent during the quarter
on trend basis to register a modest annual growth rate of 2.1 per cent.

Compared to other sectors of the Australian economy the printing sector was
not a star economic performer during the September quarter. And with the ABS
updating the reference year, the June 2007 quarter which had previously
shown growth has now been revised to show a decline. This means that
technically, the industry is once again in a recession.

The national accounts data is the last in a series of major economic
data released on the industry during the past week. On Monday sales
and profit data were released and last Thursday new capital expenditure figures
were released.

The sales data shows that despite a 2.0 per cent decline on the June 2007
quarter figures, the September 2007 quarter outcome represented an improvement
of 11.6 per cent compared to the same period a year earlier.

Total sales for the year to September totalled $19.4bn, an improvement of 10
per cent on the same period a year earlier.

Pre-tax profits in the printing, publishing and recorded media sector were
reported to have fallen by 8.7 per cent during the September 2007 quarter
compared to the June 2007 quarter. But despite the reported deterioration,
pre-tax profits are up by 28.0 per cent when compared to the same period a
year earlier.

Total pre-tax profits for the year to September totalled more than $2.6bn
representing an improvement of 39.6 per cent on the outcome achieved
during the same period a year earlier.

With the ABS only accepting data from companies employing 20 or more
employees for its profit data, the larger players in the printing industry
which comprise about 15 per cent of the total industry when measured by
number of establishments seem to be doing reasonably well.

The final set of economic data released in recent times
was new capital expenditure which was reported to have increased by
1.9 per cent during the September quarter when compared to the
outcome of the June quarter. But despite the improvement, the
September 2007 quarter outcome represented 6.0 per cent deterioration on
the September 2006 outcome.

New capital expenditure for the year to September totalled $613m representing
a 19.6 per cent deterioration compared to the same period a year earlier.

According to expectations, there are plans for $417m of new investments over
the next nine months.

Today's national accounts figures show that over the September quarter
the Australian economy grew by 0.9 per cent on a trend basis resulting in
an annual growth rate of 4.0 per cent.

The principal drivers of economic activity during the quarter were household
consumption expenditure and government expenditure. Net exports once again
detracted from growth.

Payment to employees increased by 1.6 per cent during the quarter and by 9.0
per cent during the year to September in seasonally adjusted terms. Private
sector gross operating surplus fell by 0.6 per cent during the quarter but
was up by 10.0 per cent during the year to September.

The wages share of the economy rose from 53.9 per cent to 54.2 per cent
while the profit share fell from 27.0 per cent to 26.6 per cent.

Trend based growth rates among the states and territories show Western
Australia grew by 11.2 per cent during the year to September followed by
Queensland which grew by 7.9 per cent, Tasmania 4.6 per cent, New South Wales
4.5 per cent, Victoria 3.3 per cent, Australian Capital Territory 2.3 per cent,
South Australia 2.0 per cent and Northern Territory 0.2 per cent.

At a broad industry level retail trade, transport and storage, finance and
insurance, property and business services and ownership of dwellings were all
reported to have contributed to growth while mining detracted from growth.

Providing an overall assessment of reported economic conditions in the
printing industry, Printing Industries national policy and research manager,
Hagop Tchamkertenian, said the latest data shows that industry
conditions are softening.

He says, "Putting it in proper context while the printing industry is
no longer expanding due to reported deterioration in industry
sales, pre-tax profits and economic growth during the September quarter,
when compared to the same period a year earlier the reported
outcomes still remain favourable.

"The September 2007 quarter shows the Australian economy continues
to grow in a robust manner an outcome that is likely to exert upward
pressure on interest rates.

Tchamkertenian said with the Reserve Bank of Australia
remaining concerned about increasing underlying inflationary pressures, it
is now likely that measures will be taken to slow down domestic economic
activity.

"If interest rates rise as expected over the next six to nine
months, then at both the Australian economy level and certainly at the
printing industry level economic conditions will become significantly less
buoyant.

"The key to whether there will be further sustained economic growth or
a possible economic bust now rests with the forthcoming monetary policy
decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia,"
he said.

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