One of the world’s biggest ad bosses has challenged News Corp Australia’s rosy newspaper outlook, predicting newspaper ad revenue will shrink by a quarter in the next two years.
In a keynote address to the World Business Forum in Sydney, Saatchi & Saatchi chief executive Kevin Roberts cited forecasts predicting revenue will plunge 26.3 per cent from $1.9bn to $1.4bn, saying the outlook for newspapers is bleak.
Roberts was responding to recent remarks by New Corp Australia chief executive Robert Thompson saying newspapers would be published in print for ‘decades and decades and decades’ and that the company believes ‘print will have an absolutely crucial role in a multiplatform future’.
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Roberts says such predictions are fanciful and that digital is a serious threat to both newspapers and creative agencies like his, especially with the power of tech giants like Google and Facebook.
“It’s quite astonishing, [News Corp’s claim] unbelievable really. Good luck and Godspeed on that one,” he says.
“They will tell you the two fastest ways to reach mass consumers is TV, of course, and newspapers. And it’s true.
“But the shift to digital is unstoppable.”
However, Roberts sees a somewhat better future for printed magazines, which serve particular niches.
“I’m a big believer in magazines. There’s a whole quality and quantity ‘time spent’ editorial and curation thing about magazines,” he says.
Thompson said at News Cord Australia’s recent ‘upfront’ presentation, and at an industry event the same week, that printed versions of newspapers remain the most effective medium for creating communities and ‘affinity’ with readers and advertisers.
“There is a contemporary perception that newspapers are fading in their influence, that minutes spent on the web exceed minutes spent with print, but that certainly does not even get close to the truth,” he says.
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He later told The Australian: “It's a sign of a morbid mindset that afflicts not just in this country but, internationally, some media groups."
“Fatalism can be fatal. I think people have failed to articulate enough the power of print as a platform."
He added that News Corp’s newspapers would be in print for "decades and decades and decades … print will continue to evolve in the same way that digital is evolving".
Figures from the Commercial Economic Advisory Service of Australia indicate newspapers’ slice of the $11.4bn Australian advertising spend fell to 16.3 per cent in 2013 from 18.9 per cent in 2012 and 22.1 per cent in 2011.
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